Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 46.5% vs Reinhart 45.1% (+2.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 52.8%
Defensive zone
Reinhart 57.5%
Neutral zone
Reinhart 54.4%
Result
Sam Reinhart favored at 54.1%
45.9%
54.1%
MacKinnon
Reinhart
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
MacKinnon
Reinhart
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Reinhart
0
1
MacKinnon
Reinhart
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
MacKinnon
Reinhart
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Reinhart
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (1,190)
44.6% (345)
+0.9%
Power Play
56.4% (94)
43.3% (97)
+13.1%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (30)
43.2% (88)
-3.2%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +13.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Reinhart shoots right. MacKinnon is 47.2% vs right-shot opponents (409).
MacKinnon shoots right. Reinhart is 47.2% vs right-shot opponents (89).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Reinhart
Home
47.8% (670)
47.9% (267)
Away
44.6% (644)
40.3% (263)
By Period
MacKinnon
Reinhart
P1
45.3%
45.6%
P2
48.5%
42.0%
P3
45.0%
45.4%
OT
33.3%
33.3%
Final 5 min
47.4%
40.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.2%
Reinhart
40.0%▬
39.0%
44.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 10, 2024 | 3 | 07:10 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 2 | 11:56 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 1 | 09:37 | Defensive | Sam Reinhart |