Scouting Report
Sam Steel holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). MacKinnon wins 44.4% vs left-shot opponents — Steel shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 44.9% vs Steel 48.8% (-4.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Steel 68.4%
Defensive zone
Steel 53.0%
Neutral zone
Steel 79.1%
Result
Sam Steel favored at 65.3%
34.7%
65.3%
MacKinnon
Steel
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
MacKinnon
Steel
Last 5: MacKinnon 4-1 Steel
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
3
1
MacKinnon
Steel
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
0
MacKinnon
Steel
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Steel
Edge
Even Strength
44.7% (1,053)
49.5% (553)
-4.8%
Power Play
36.8% (95)
61.3% (31)
-24.5%
Penalty Kill
65.0% (20)
30.6% (49)
+34.4%
On penalty kill, MacKinnon has a +34.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Steel shoots left. MacKinnon is 44.4% vs left-shot opponents (860).
MacKinnon shoots right. Steel is 52.2% vs right-shot opponents (255).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Steel
Home
49.4% (553)
46.4% (347)
Away
40.0% (615)
51.4% (286)
By Period
MacKinnon
Steel
P1
45.3%
52.1%
P2
42.7%
49.8%
P3
45.1%
45.2%
OT
46.2%
0.0%
Final 5 min
49.8%
42.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
44.4%
Steel
50.0%▬
49.0%
48.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2023 | 3 | 05:23 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 15, 2023 | 2 | 10:54 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Feb 15, 2023 | 2 | 02:00 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 17, 2022 | 1 | 19:58 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 17, 2022 | 1 | 19:43 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |