Scouting Report
Sam Steel holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (90% H2H, 10 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 46.8% vs Steel 50.2% (-3.4%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 19-6 in 25 meetings
Offensive zone
Steel 57.0%
Defensive zone
Steel 64.1%
Neutral zone
Steel 77.9%
Result
Sam Steel favored at 66.8%
33.2%
66.8%
MacKinnon
Steel
Head-to-Head Record
19
-
6
(25 meetings)
19
6
MacKinnon
Steel
Last 10: MacKinnon 7-3 Steel
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
9
1
MacKinnon
Steel
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
3
2
MacKinnon
Steel
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
7
3
MacKinnon
Steel
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Steel
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (11,218)
50.6% (2,876)
-4.5%
Power Play
53.3% (1,412)
62.6% (179)
-9.3%
Penalty Kill
42.8% (502)
37.4% (254)
+5.4%
On power play, Steel has a +9.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Steel shoots left. MacKinnon is 47.1% vs left-shot opponents (9,490).
MacKinnon shoots right. Steel is 50.5% vs right-shot opponents (1,237).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Steel
Home
49.7% (6,444)
50.0% (1,560)
Away
44.0% (6,689)
50.4% (1,749)
By Period
MacKinnon
Steel
P1
47.4%
51.9%
P2
46.6%
49.5%
P3
46.1%
49.6%
OT
48.4%
41.9%
Final 5 min
49.0%
48.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.8%
Steel
50.0%▬
49.0%
50.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2025 | 3 | 05:48 | Defensive | Sam Steel |
| Mar 16, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 16, 2025 | 2 | 19:44 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 16, 2025 | 1 | 13:49 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 16, 2025 | 1 | 11:32 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 16, 2025 | 1 | 01:03 | Defensive | Sam Steel |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 3 | 11:47 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 3 | 07:19 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 3 | 09:16 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 3 | 03:46 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 3 | 03:41 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 1 | 11:46 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 7, 2024 | 2 | 17:10 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 4, 2024 | 1 | 05:56 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 1 | 14:21 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 29, 2023 | 3 | 05:23 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 15, 2023 | 2 | 10:54 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Feb 15, 2023 | 2 | 02:00 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 17, 2022 | 1 | 19:58 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 17, 2022 | 1 | 19:43 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |