Scouting Report
Sam Steel holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 49.9% vs Steel 52.8% (-3.6%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 9-3 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Steel 53.3%
Defensive zone
Steel 84.4%
Neutral zone
Steel 68.4%
Result
Sam Steel favored at 64.8%
35.2%
64.8%
MacKinnon
Steel
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
3
(12 meetings)
9
3
MacKinnon
Steel
Last 10: MacKinnon 7-3 Steel
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
5
0
MacKinnon
Steel
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Steel
0
2
MacKinnon
Steel
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
4
1
MacKinnon
Steel
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Steel
Edge
Even Strength
49.2% (1,266)
56.9% (320)
-7.7%
Power Play
54.9% (193)
71.4% (7)
-16.5%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (55)
37.0% (73)
+12.1%
On power play, Steel has a +16.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Steel shoots left. MacKinnon is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,100).
MacKinnon shoots right. Steel is 51.1% vs right-shot opponents (176).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Steel
Home
50.9% (740)
55.9% (202)
Away
49.0% (774)
51.0% (198)
By Period
MacKinnon
Steel
P1
50.9%
55.5%
P2
51.8%
55.1%
P3
47.1%
50.3%
Final 5 min
51.2%
60.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
49.9%
Steel
50.0%▬
49.0%
53.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2025 | 3 | 05:48 | Defensive | Sam Steel |
| Mar 16, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 16, 2025 | 2 | 19:44 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 16, 2025 | 1 | 13:49 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 16, 2025 | 1 | 11:32 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 16, 2025 | 1 | 01:03 | Defensive | Sam Steel |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 3 | 11:47 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 3 | 07:19 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 3 | 09:16 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 3 | 03:46 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 3 | 03:41 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 1 | 11:46 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |