Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.5% vs 50.8%). MacKinnon wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — Steel shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 51.3% vs Steel 50.6% (+0.7%)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 66.7%
Defensive zone
Steel 66.7%
Neutral zone
Steel 50.6%
Result
Sam Steel favored at 50.2%
49.8%
50.2%
MacKinnon
Steel
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Steel
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (992)
52.5% (200)
-2.5%
Power Play
64.9% (148)
71.4% (7)
-6.5%
Penalty Kill
34.4% (32)
40.0% (45)
-5.6%
On power play, Steel has a +6.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Steel shoots left. MacKinnon is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (839).
MacKinnon shoots right. Steel is 46.2% vs right-shot opponents (104).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Steel
Home
53.3% (591)
49.5% (109)
Away
49.6% (581)
51.7% (143)
By Period
MacKinnon
Steel
P1
49.9%
49.5%
P2
53.2%
47.5%
P3
50.8%
56.6%
OT
66.7%
40.0%
Final 5 min
56.1%
50.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.5%
Steel
50.0%▬
49.0%
50.8%