Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. MacKinnon wins 45.7% vs left-shot opponents — Steel shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 46.5% vs Steel 46.6% (+1.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 60.9%
Defensive zone
Steel 62.9%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 50.6%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 54.0%
54.0%
46.0%
MacKinnon
Steel
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
0
(3 meetings)
3
0
MacKinnon
Steel
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
0
MacKinnon
Steel
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
2
0
MacKinnon
Steel
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Steel
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (1,190)
44.6% (177)
+0.9%
Power Play
56.4% (94)
66.7% (3)
-10.3%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (30)
44.8% (29)
-4.8%
On power play, Steel has a +10.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Steel shoots left. MacKinnon is 45.7% vs left-shot opponents (905).
MacKinnon shoots right. Steel is 51.0% vs right-shot opponents (100).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Steel
Home
47.8% (670)
46.7% (90)
Away
44.6% (644)
43.7% (119)
By Period
MacKinnon
Steel
P1
45.3%
47.8%
P2
48.5%
47.0%
P3
45.0%
41.3%
OT
33.3%
0.0%
Final 5 min
47.4%
39.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.2%
Steel
50.0%▬
49.0%
45.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 7, 2024 | 2 | 17:10 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 4, 2024 | 1 | 05:56 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 1 | 14:21 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |