Nathan MacKinnon vs Steven Stamkos
2024-25 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (49.9% vs 49.9%). Look for Stamkos on offensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 49.9% vs Stamkos 49.9% (+0.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 58.5%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 69.7%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 52.4%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 57.1%
42.9%
57.1%
MacKinnon
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
MacKinnon
Stamkos
Last 8: MacKinnon 3-5 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
2
5
MacKinnon
Stamkos
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
0
MacKinnon
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
49.2% (1,266)
49.3% (670)
-0.1%
Power Play
54.9% (193)
53.7% (121)
+1.2%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (55)
33.3% (3)
+15.8%
On penalty kill, MacKinnon has a +15.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. MacKinnon is 47.6% vs right-shot opponents (414).
MacKinnon shoots right. Stamkos is 42.4% vs right-shot opponents (184).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Stamkos
Home
50.9% (740)
54.0% (400)
Away
49.0% (774)
45.7% (394)
By Period
MacKinnon
Stamkos
P1
50.9%
48.6%
P2
51.8%
54.5%
P3
47.1%
45.4%
OT
58.8%
100.0%
Final 5 min
51.2%
46.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
49.9%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2024 | 3 | 13:54 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 3 | 05:57 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 2 | 18:33 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 1 | 13:28 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 1 | 04:31 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 1 | 04:25 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 11, 2024 | 3 | 00:19 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 11, 2024 | 1 | 19:01 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |