Nathan MacKinnon vs Steven Stamkos
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 20 meetings). MacKinnon wins 46.0% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 46.8% vs Stamkos 51.0% (-4.2%)
H2H factor
Stamkos leads 27-17 in 44 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 76.8%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 72.6%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 72.2%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 74.4%
74.4%
25.6%
MacKinnon
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
17
-
27
(44 meetings)
17
27
MacKinnon
Stamkos
Last 10: MacKinnon 3-7 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
5
15
MacKinnon
Stamkos
20 total
Defensive Zone
Even
5
5
MacKinnon
Stamkos
10 total
Neutral Zone
Even
7
7
MacKinnon
Stamkos
14 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (11,218)
50.4% (9,799)
-4.3%
Power Play
53.3% (1,412)
55.1% (1,725)
-1.8%
Penalty Kill
42.8% (502)
49.7% (825)
-6.9%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +6.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. MacKinnon is 46.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,643).
MacKinnon shoots right. Stamkos is 48.3% vs right-shot opponents (3,597).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Stamkos
Home
49.7% (6,444)
52.7% (6,248)
Away
44.0% (6,689)
49.3% (6,127)
By Period
MacKinnon
Stamkos
P1
47.4%
49.1%
P2
46.6%
52.7%
P3
46.1%
50.9%
OT
48.4%
54.3%
Final 5 min
49.0%
52.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.8%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
51.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 14:45 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 09:39 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 13:33 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 06:45 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 06:34 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 3 | 13:54 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 3 | 05:57 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 2 | 18:33 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 1 | 13:28 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 1 | 04:31 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 1 | 04:25 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 11, 2024 | 3 | 00:19 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 11, 2024 | 1 | 19:01 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 27, 2023 | 1 | 17:55 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 14, 2023 | 3 | 14:54 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 14, 2023 | 2 | 13:41 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 14, 2023 | 2 | 11:55 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 14, 2023 | 2 | 05:26 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 14, 2023 | 1 | 06:18 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 14, 2023 | 1 | 03:31 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |