Nathan MacKinnon vs Steven Stamkos
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. MacKinnon wins 45.6% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 51.3% vs Stamkos 54.6% (-4.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 50.5%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 58.8%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 52.8%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 54.3%
54.3%
45.7%
MacKinnon
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
MacKinnon
Stamkos
Last 5: MacKinnon 2-3 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
MacKinnon
Stamkos
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
MacKinnon
Stamkos
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
1
MacKinnon
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (992)
56.1% (342)
-6.1%
Power Play
64.9% (148)
53.3% (92)
+11.6%
Penalty Kill
34.4% (32)
62.5% (8)
-28.1%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +28.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. MacKinnon is 45.6% vs right-shot opponents (333).
MacKinnon shoots right. Stamkos is 51.3% vs right-shot opponents (117).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Stamkos
Home
53.3% (591)
53.4% (208)
Away
49.6% (581)
57.7% (234)
By Period
MacKinnon
Stamkos
P1
49.9%
55.6%
P2
53.2%
52.8%
P3
50.8%
59.1%
OT
66.7%
62.5%
Final 5 min
56.1%
56.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.5%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 14:45 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 09:39 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 13:33 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 06:45 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 06:34 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |