Nathan MacKinnon vs Tage Thompson
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +5.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Thompson on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). MacKinnon wins 46.7% vs right-shot opponents — Thompson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 51.0% vs Thompson 45.9% (+5.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thompson 73.8%
Defensive zone
Thompson 74.0%
Neutral zone
Thompson 72.7%
Result
Tage Thompson favored at 73.4%
26.6%
73.4%
MacKinnon
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
7
(8 meetings)
1
7
MacKinnon
Thompson
Last 8: MacKinnon 1-7 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
0
4
MacKinnon
Thompson
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
0
1
MacKinnon
Thompson
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thompson
1
2
MacKinnon
Thompson
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (1,134)
45.4% (721)
+4.3%
Power Play
63.5% (167)
49.5% (103)
+14.0%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (33)
35.3% (34)
-2.0%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +14.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. MacKinnon is 46.7% vs right-shot opponents (368).
MacKinnon shoots right. Thompson is 53.6% vs right-shot opponents (239).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Thompson
Home
52.7% (674)
46.1% (438)
Away
49.4% (660)
44.8% (420)
By Period
MacKinnon
Thompson
P1
49.6%
46.9%
P2
52.5%
47.3%
P3
50.6%
42.1%
OT
66.7%
42.9%
Final 5 min
56.1%
44.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
52.0%▲
49.5%
51.0%
Thompson
54.0%▲
45.0%
45.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 13, 2025 | 3 | 09:32 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 1 | 09:54 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 1 | 09:46 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 3 | 07:13 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 2 | 05:45 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 1 | 03:14 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 1 | 00:42 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 1 | 00:32 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |