Nathan MacKinnon vs Tage Thompson
2024-25 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +7.1% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 49.9% vs Thompson 43.7% (+7.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 80.0%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 75.4%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 71.8%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 75.3%
75.3%
24.7%
MacKinnon
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
MacKinnon
Thompson
Last 8: MacKinnon 5-3 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
1
2
MacKinnon
Thompson
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
0
MacKinnon
Thompson
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
3
1
MacKinnon
Thompson
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
49.2% (1,266)
41.9% (597)
+7.3%
Power Play
54.9% (193)
50.5% (95)
+4.4%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (55)
25.0% (12)
+24.1%
On penalty kill, MacKinnon has a +24.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. MacKinnon is 47.6% vs right-shot opponents (414).
MacKinnon shoots right. Thompson is 44.7% vs right-shot opponents (190).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Thompson
Home
50.9% (740)
47.1% (367)
Away
49.0% (774)
38.0% (337)
By Period
MacKinnon
Thompson
P1
50.9%
44.2%
P2
51.8%
41.6%
P3
47.1%
42.9%
OT
58.8%
25.0%
Final 5 min
51.2%
48.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
54.0%▬
54.5%
49.9%
Thompson
34.0%▼
41.5%
42.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 3, 2024 | 3 | 12:33 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 2 | 10:31 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 2 | 06:29 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 2 | 02:24 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 1 | 02:36 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 1 | 00:17 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |