Nathan MacKinnon vs Tage Thompson
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Thompson on offensive-zone draws (73% H2H, 11 meetings). MacKinnon wins 46.0% vs right-shot opponents — Thompson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 46.8% vs Thompson 42.8% (+4.2%)
H2H factor
Thompson leads 19-18 in 37 meetings
Offensive zone
Thompson 50.7%
Defensive zone
Thompson 54.5%
Neutral zone
Thompson 56.7%
Result
Tage Thompson favored at 54.5%
45.5%
54.5%
MacKinnon
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
18
-
19
(37 meetings)
18
19
MacKinnon
Thompson
Last 10: MacKinnon 2-8 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
3
8
MacKinnon
Thompson
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
6
2
MacKinnon
Thompson
8 total
Neutral Zone
Even
9
9
MacKinnon
Thompson
18 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (11,218)
42.9% (3,521)
+3.2%
Power Play
53.3% (1,412)
46.8% (372)
+6.5%
Penalty Kill
42.8% (502)
33.6% (265)
+9.2%
On penalty kill, MacKinnon has a +9.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. MacKinnon is 46.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,643).
MacKinnon shoots right. Thompson is 47.3% vs right-shot opponents (1,147).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Thompson
Home
49.7% (6,444)
44.9% (2,115)
Away
44.0% (6,689)
40.3% (2,043)
By Period
MacKinnon
Thompson
P1
47.4%
44.5%
P2
46.6%
43.6%
P3
46.1%
40.2%
OT
48.4%
36.4%
Final 5 min
49.0%
41.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.8%
Thompson
36.0%▼
39.5%
42.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 13, 2025 | 3 | 09:32 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 1 | 09:54 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 1 | 09:46 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 3 | 07:13 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 2 | 05:45 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 1 | 03:14 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 1 | 00:42 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 1 | 00:32 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 3 | 12:33 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 2 | 10:31 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 2 | 06:29 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 2 | 02:24 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 1 | 02:36 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 1 | 00:17 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 13, 2023 | 2 | 18:15 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 13, 2023 | 2 | 11:00 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 13, 2023 | 1 | 15:00 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 13, 2023 | 1 | 10:47 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |