Nathan MacKinnon vs Tage Thompson
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +6.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Thompson on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). MacKinnon wins 45.6% vs right-shot opponents — Thompson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 51.3% vs Thompson 45.3% (+6.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thompson 82.6%
Defensive zone
Thompson 75.3%
Neutral zone
Thompson 75.3%
Result
Tage Thompson favored at 78.9%
21.1%
78.9%
MacKinnon
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
7
(8 meetings)
1
7
MacKinnon
Thompson
Last 8: MacKinnon 1-7 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
0
4
MacKinnon
Thompson
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
0
1
MacKinnon
Thompson
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thompson
1
2
MacKinnon
Thompson
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (992)
44.9% (642)
+5.1%
Power Play
64.9% (148)
47.9% (94)
+17.0%
Penalty Kill
34.4% (32)
33.3% (33)
+1.1%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +17.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. MacKinnon is 45.6% vs right-shot opponents (333).
MacKinnon shoots right. Thompson is 51.4% vs right-shot opponents (220).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Thompson
Home
53.3% (591)
46.0% (391)
Away
49.6% (581)
43.4% (378)
By Period
MacKinnon
Thompson
P1
49.9%
48.1%
P2
53.2%
44.9%
P3
50.8%
41.2%
OT
66.7%
42.9%
Final 5 min
56.1%
42.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.5%
Thompson
36.0%▼
39.5%
44.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 13, 2025 | 3 | 09:32 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 1 | 09:54 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 1 | 09:46 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 3 | 07:13 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 2 | 05:45 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 1 | 03:14 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 1 | 00:42 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 1 | 00:32 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |