Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +11.9% FO% edge overall. MacKinnon wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — Jost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 51.3% vs Jost 45.0% (+11.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 74.8%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 56.0%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 64.7%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 56.0%
56.0%
44.0%
MacKinnon
Jost
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
MacKinnon
Jost
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
0
MacKinnon
Jost
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Jost
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (992)
39.3% (84)
+10.7%
Power Play
64.9% (148)
0.0% (1)
+64.9%
Penalty Kill
34.4% (32)
50.0% (6)
-15.6%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +64.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jost shoots left. MacKinnon is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (839).
MacKinnon shoots right. Jost is 48.5% vs right-shot opponents (33).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Jost
Home
53.3% (591)
38.5% (52)
Away
49.6% (581)
41.0% (39)
By Period
MacKinnon
Jost
P1
49.9%
40.6%
P2
53.2%
38.9%
P3
50.8%
39.1%
Final 5 min
56.1%
37.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.5%
Jost
38.0%▼
41.5%
39.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2026 | 1 | 02:49 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |