Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +12.5% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 50.7% vs Jost 46.3% (+12.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 74.5%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 64.4%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 64.1%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 64.4%
64.4%
35.6%
MacKinnon
Jost
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
MacKinnon
Jost
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
0
MacKinnon
Jost
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Jost
Edge
Even Strength
49.1% (825)
38.3% (47)
+10.8%
On even strength, MacKinnon has a +10.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jost shoots left. MacKinnon is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (716).
MacKinnon shoots right. Jost is 42.9% vs right-shot opponents (14).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Jost
Home
52.6% (489)
36.4% (22)
Away
49.1% (495)
40.0% (25)
By Period
MacKinnon
Jost
P1
50.3%
43.8%
P2
52.6%
36.8%
P3
49.2%
33.3%
Final 5 min
55.6%
30.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
54.0%▬
54.5%
50.8%
Jost
40.0%▼
44.5%
38.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2026 | 1 | 02:49 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |