Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +5.0% FO% edge overall. MacKinnon wins 44.5% vs left-shot opponents — Jost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 45.9% vs Jost 42.2% (+5.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 51.9%
Defensive zone
Jost 74.7%
Neutral zone
Jost 68.5%
Result
Tyson Jost favored at 68.5%
31.5%
68.5%
MacKinnon
Jost
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
MacKinnon
Jost
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Jost
0
2
MacKinnon
Jost
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Jost
Edge
Even Strength
45.8% (755)
40.8% (314)
+5.0%
Power Play
48.3% (60)
37.5% (8)
+10.8%
Penalty Kill
27.6% (29)
39.4% (104)
-11.8%
On penalty kill, Jost has a +11.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jost shoots left. MacKinnon is 44.5% vs left-shot opponents (636).
MacKinnon shoots right. Jost is 36.0% vs right-shot opponents (172).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Jost
Home
49.5% (396)
42.8% (264)
Away
41.7% (448)
36.4% (162)
By Period
MacKinnon
Jost
P1
50.2%
37.4%
P2
43.8%
40.5%
P3
41.4%
43.3%
Final 5 min
41.0%
43.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
45.4%
Jost
38.0%▼
41.5%
40.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 27, 2022 | 1 | 05:50 | Neutral | Tyson Jost |
| Mar 27, 2022 | 1 | 05:44 | Neutral | Tyson Jost |