Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +6.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Jost on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 46.8% vs Jost 40.5% (+6.7%)
H2H factor
Jost leads 7-6 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 62.5%
Defensive zone
Jost 61.2%
Neutral zone
Jost 55.2%
Result
Tyson Jost favored at 54.8%
45.2%
54.8%
MacKinnon
Jost
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
7
(13 meetings)
6
7
MacKinnon
Jost
Last 10: MacKinnon 6-4 Jost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
MacKinnon
Jost
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Jost
2
3
MacKinnon
Jost
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
MacKinnon
Jost
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Jost
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (11,218)
41.0% (2,014)
+5.1%
Power Play
53.3% (1,412)
34.2% (73)
+19.1%
Penalty Kill
42.8% (502)
35.3% (255)
+7.5%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +19.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jost shoots left. MacKinnon is 47.1% vs left-shot opponents (9,490).
MacKinnon shoots right. Jost is 39.4% vs right-shot opponents (876).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Jost
Home
49.7% (6,444)
41.9% (1,238)
Away
44.0% (6,689)
38.1% (1,104)
By Period
MacKinnon
Jost
P1
47.4%
38.5%
P2
46.6%
41.2%
P3
46.1%
40.9%
OT
48.4%
40.0%
Final 5 min
49.0%
38.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.8%
Jost
38.0%▼
41.5%
40.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2026 | 1 | 02:49 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 13, 2023 | 1 | 15:13 | Defensive | Tyson Jost |
| Dec 1, 2022 | 3 | 00:07 | Neutral | Tyson Jost |
| Dec 1, 2022 | 1 | 13:30 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 1, 2022 | 1 | 13:19 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 1, 2022 | 1 | 03:18 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 17, 2022 | 3 | 14:12 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 17, 2022 | 3 | 04:17 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 17, 2022 | 2 | 19:14 | Offensive | Tyson Jost |
| Oct 17, 2022 | 2 | 08:37 | Defensive | Tyson Jost |
| Oct 17, 2022 | 2 | 07:41 | Defensive | Tyson Jost |
| Mar 27, 2022 | 1 | 05:50 | Neutral | Tyson Jost |
| Mar 27, 2022 | 1 | 05:44 | Neutral | Tyson Jost |