Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. MacKinnon wins 45.7% vs left-shot opponents — Jost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 46.5% vs Jost 45.0% (+3.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Jost 53.7%
Defensive zone
Jost 51.0%
Neutral zone
Jost 53.7%
Result
Tyson Jost favored at 51.0%
49.0%
51.0%
MacKinnon
Jost
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
MacKinnon
Jost
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Jost
0
1
MacKinnon
Jost
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Jost
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (1,190)
43.3% (194)
+2.2%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (30)
25.0% (8)
+15.0%
On penalty kill, MacKinnon has a +15.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jost shoots left. MacKinnon is 45.7% vs left-shot opponents (905).
MacKinnon shoots right. Jost is 39.7% vs right-shot opponents (73).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Jost
Home
47.8% (670)
39.7% (78)
Away
44.6% (644)
44.4% (124)
By Period
MacKinnon
Jost
P1
45.3%
40.5%
P2
48.5%
43.2%
P3
45.0%
44.9%
Final 5 min
47.4%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.2%
Jost
38.0%▼
41.5%
42.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 13, 2023 | 1 | 15:13 | Defensive | Tyson Jost |