Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). MacKinnon wins 44.4% vs left-shot opponents — Jost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 44.9% vs Jost 40.8% (+5.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 72.6%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 53.8%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 54.7%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 58.4%
58.4%
41.6%
MacKinnon
Jost
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
MacKinnon
Jost
Last 9: MacKinnon 5-4 Jost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
MacKinnon
Jost
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Jost
1
2
MacKinnon
Jost
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
3
1
MacKinnon
Jost
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Jost
Edge
Even Strength
44.7% (1,053)
41.8% (388)
+2.9%
Power Play
36.8% (95)
0.0% (3)
+36.8%
Penalty Kill
65.0% (20)
21.7% (60)
+43.3%
On penalty kill, MacKinnon has a +43.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jost shoots left. MacKinnon is 44.4% vs left-shot opponents (860).
MacKinnon shoots right. Jost is 39.3% vs right-shot opponents (168).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Jost
Home
49.4% (553)
42.6% (230)
Away
40.0% (615)
34.8% (221)
By Period
MacKinnon
Jost
P1
45.3%
43.2%
P2
42.7%
38.2%
P3
45.1%
34.6%
OT
46.2%
0.0%
Final 5 min
49.8%
40.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
44.4%
Jost
38.0%▼
41.5%
38.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 1, 2022 | 3 | 00:07 | Neutral | Tyson Jost |
| Dec 1, 2022 | 1 | 13:30 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 1, 2022 | 1 | 13:19 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 1, 2022 | 1 | 03:18 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 17, 2022 | 3 | 14:12 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 17, 2022 | 3 | 04:17 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 17, 2022 | 2 | 19:14 | Offensive | Tyson Jost |
| Oct 17, 2022 | 2 | 08:37 | Defensive | Tyson Jost |
| Oct 17, 2022 | 2 | 07:41 | Defensive | Tyson Jost |