Nathan MacKinnon vs William Karlsson
2022-23 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
William Karlsson holds a +10.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Karlsson on offensive-zone draws (57% H2H, 7 meetings). MacKinnon wins 44.4% vs left-shot opponents — Karlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 44.9% vs Karlsson 54.9% (-10.9%)
H2H factor
Karlsson leads 8-7 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 52.9%
Defensive zone
Karlsson 50.3%
Neutral zone
Karlsson 51.1%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 50.9%
50.9%
49.1%
MacKinnon
Karlsson
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
8
(15 meetings)
7
8
MacKinnon
Karlsson
Last 10: MacKinnon 4-6 Karlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Karlsson
3
4
MacKinnon
Karlsson
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
2
1
MacKinnon
Karlsson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Karlsson
2
3
MacKinnon
Karlsson
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
44.7% (1,053)
55.3% (897)
-10.6%
Power Play
36.8% (95)
61.1% (113)
-24.3%
Penalty Kill
65.0% (20)
50.8% (132)
+14.2%
On power play, Karlsson has a +24.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. MacKinnon is 44.4% vs left-shot opponents (860).
MacKinnon shoots right. Karlsson is 54.4% vs right-shot opponents (390).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Karlsson
Home
49.4% (553)
58.6% (560)
Away
40.0% (615)
52.2% (582)
By Period
MacKinnon
Karlsson
P1
45.3%
55.8%
P2
42.7%
55.6%
P3
45.1%
55.7%
OT
46.2%
33.3%
Final 5 min
49.8%
56.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
44.4%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2023 | 3 | 16:16 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Feb 27, 2023 | 3 | 15:57 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 27, 2023 | 2 | 16:55 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Feb 27, 2023 | 2 | 04:26 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Jan 2, 2023 | 2 | 14:46 | Neutral | William Karlsson |
| Jan 2, 2023 | 2 | 07:14 | Neutral | William Karlsson |
| Jan 2, 2023 | 1 | 09:58 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 2, 2023 | 1 | 04:18 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 3 | 10:32 | Neutral | William Karlsson |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 2 | 17:32 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 2 | 11:53 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 2 | 11:49 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 2 | 04:51 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 1 | 03:43 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 1 | 03:35 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |