Nathan MacKinnon vs William Karlsson
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
William Karlsson holds a +6.1% FO% edge overall. MacKinnon wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — Karlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 51.3% vs Karlsson 54.7% (-6.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Karlsson 55.9%
Defensive zone
Karlsson 88.7%
Neutral zone
Karlsson 62.4%
Result
William Karlsson favored at 62.4%
37.6%
62.4%
MacKinnon
Karlsson
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
MacKinnon
Karlsson
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
0
MacKinnon
Karlsson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (992)
58.5% (135)
-8.5%
Power Play
64.9% (148)
80.0% (5)
-15.1%
Penalty Kill
34.4% (32)
44.4% (18)
-10.0%
On power play, Karlsson has a +15.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. MacKinnon is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (839).
MacKinnon shoots right. Karlsson is 71.1% vs right-shot opponents (38).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Karlsson
Home
53.3% (591)
63.7% (91)
Away
49.6% (581)
49.3% (67)
By Period
MacKinnon
Karlsson
P1
49.9%
54.4%
P2
53.2%
66.7%
P3
50.8%
51.9%
OT
66.7%
100.0%
Final 5 min
56.1%
54.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.5%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
57.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2025 | 3 | 03:59 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |