Nathan MacKinnon vs William Karlsson
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
William Karlsson holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Karlsson on neutral-zone draws (64% H2H, 53 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 46.8% vs Karlsson 51.3% (-4.5%)
H2H factor
Karlsson leads 69-49 in 118 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 74.2%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 82.1%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 80.4%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 79.1%
79.1%
20.9%
MacKinnon
Karlsson
Head-to-Head Record
49
-
69
(118 meetings)
49
69
MacKinnon
Karlsson
Last 10: MacKinnon 6-4 Karlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Karlsson
15
19
MacKinnon
Karlsson
34 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Karlsson
15
16
MacKinnon
Karlsson
31 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Karlsson
19
34
MacKinnon
Karlsson
53 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (11,218)
51.8% (7,849)
-5.7%
Power Play
53.3% (1,412)
54.8% (1,048)
-1.5%
Penalty Kill
42.8% (502)
44.2% (1,109)
-1.4%
On even strength, Karlsson has a +5.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. MacKinnon is 47.1% vs left-shot opponents (9,490).
MacKinnon shoots right. Karlsson is 52.2% vs right-shot opponents (3,455).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Karlsson
Home
49.7% (6,444)
52.0% (5,090)
Away
44.0% (6,689)
50.5% (4,916)
By Period
MacKinnon
Karlsson
P1
47.4%
50.3%
P2
46.6%
51.3%
P3
46.1%
52.4%
OT
48.4%
44.9%
Final 5 min
49.0%
51.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.8%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2025 | 3 | 03:59 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 27, 2024 | OT | 03:49 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 3 | 17:51 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 3 | 15:44 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 2 | 13:09 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 1 | 18:41 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 1 | 07:54 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 3 | 02:56 | Neutral | William Karlsson |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | William Karlsson |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 1 | 14:00 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 1 | 10:34 | Neutral | William Karlsson |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | William Karlsson |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 2 | 17:13 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Feb 27, 2023 | 3 | 16:16 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Feb 27, 2023 | 3 | 15:57 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 27, 2023 | 2 | 16:55 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Feb 27, 2023 | 2 | 04:26 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Jan 2, 2023 | 2 | 14:46 | Neutral | William Karlsson |