Nathan MacKinnon vs William Karlsson
2024-25 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
William Karlsson holds a +8.2% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 49.9% vs Karlsson 57.1% (-8.2%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Karlsson 76.3%
Defensive zone
Karlsson 86.4%
Neutral zone
Karlsson 76.9%
Result
William Karlsson favored at 82.5%
17.5%
82.5%
MacKinnon
Karlsson
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
4
(10 meetings)
6
4
MacKinnon
Karlsson
Last 6: MacKinnon 4-2 Karlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
2
0
MacKinnon
Karlsson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
3
3
MacKinnon
Karlsson
6 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
MacKinnon
Karlsson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
49.2% (1,266)
58.6% (597)
-9.4%
Power Play
54.9% (193)
57.9% (57)
-3.0%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (55)
51.9% (52)
-2.8%
On even strength, Karlsson has a +9.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. MacKinnon is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,100).
MacKinnon shoots right. Karlsson is 59.0% vs right-shot opponents (239).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Karlsson
Home
50.9% (740)
59.6% (344)
Away
49.0% (774)
56.6% (362)
By Period
MacKinnon
Karlsson
P1
50.9%
53.1%
P2
51.8%
62.1%
P3
47.1%
60.1%
OT
58.8%
33.3%
Final 5 min
51.2%
61.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
49.9%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 27, 2024 | OT | 03:49 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 3 | 17:51 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 3 | 15:44 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 2 | 13:09 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 1 | 18:41 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 1 | 07:54 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |