Nathan MacKinnon vs Zemgus Girgensons
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +8.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Girgensons on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). MacKinnon wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — Girgensons shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 51.3% vs Girgensons 45.8% (+8.0%)
H2H factor
Girgensons leads 8-4 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 55.5%
Defensive zone
Girgensons 86.4%
Neutral zone
Girgensons 59.0%
Result
Zemgus Girgensons favored at 68.0%
32.0%
68.0%
MacKinnon
Girgensons
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
8
(12 meetings)
4
8
MacKinnon
Girgensons
Last 10: MacKinnon 4-6 Girgensons
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
2
0
MacKinnon
Girgensons
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Girgensons
1
4
MacKinnon
Girgensons
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Girgensons
1
4
MacKinnon
Girgensons
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Girgensons
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (992)
43.2% (146)
+6.8%
Power Play
64.9% (148)
50.0% (2)
+14.9%
Penalty Kill
34.4% (32)
44.8% (29)
-10.4%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +14.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Girgensons shoots left. MacKinnon is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (839).
MacKinnon shoots right. Girgensons is 41.4% vs right-shot opponents (58).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Girgensons
Home
53.3% (591)
40.3% (72)
Away
49.6% (581)
45.7% (105)
By Period
MacKinnon
Girgensons
P1
49.9%
43.8%
P2
53.2%
44.6%
P3
50.8%
42.5%
Final 5 min
56.1%
34.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.5%
Girgensons
58.0%▲
44.0%
43.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 00:09 | Neutral | Zemgus Girgensons |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 18:22 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 3 | 09:12 | Defensive | Zemgus Girgensons |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 3 | 09:01 | Defensive | Zemgus Girgensons |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 3 | 08:54 | Defensive | Zemgus Girgensons |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 3 | 03:32 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 3 | 00:10 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 17:23 | Defensive | Zemgus Girgensons |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 13:03 | Neutral | Zemgus Girgensons |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 12:48 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 06:52 | Neutral | Zemgus Girgensons |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 04:08 | Neutral | Zemgus Girgensons |