Nathan MacKinnon vs Zemgus Girgensons
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 46.8% vs Girgensons 45.3% (+1.6%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 11-10 in 21 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 69.6%
Defensive zone
Girgensons 57.8%
Neutral zone
Girgensons 52.1%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 53.2%
53.2%
46.8%
MacKinnon
Girgensons
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
10
(21 meetings)
11
10
MacKinnon
Girgensons
Last 10: MacKinnon 4-6 Girgensons
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
7
0
MacKinnon
Girgensons
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Girgensons
2
5
MacKinnon
Girgensons
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Girgensons
2
5
MacKinnon
Girgensons
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Girgensons
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (11,218)
45.4% (2,700)
+0.7%
Power Play
53.3% (1,412)
49.1% (175)
+4.2%
Penalty Kill
42.8% (502)
42.2% (481)
+0.6%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +4.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Girgensons shoots left. MacKinnon is 47.1% vs left-shot opponents (9,490).
MacKinnon shoots right. Girgensons is 44.2% vs right-shot opponents (1,295).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Girgensons
Home
49.7% (6,444)
45.3% (1,673)
Away
44.0% (6,689)
45.0% (1,683)
By Period
MacKinnon
Girgensons
P1
47.4%
45.7%
P2
46.6%
44.1%
P3
46.1%
45.5%
OT
48.4%
52.5%
Final 5 min
49.0%
43.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.8%
Girgensons
58.0%▲
44.0%
45.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 00:09 | Neutral | Zemgus Girgensons |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 18:22 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 3 | 09:12 | Defensive | Zemgus Girgensons |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 3 | 09:01 | Defensive | Zemgus Girgensons |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 3 | 08:54 | Defensive | Zemgus Girgensons |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 3 | 03:32 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 3 | 00:10 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 17:23 | Defensive | Zemgus Girgensons |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 13:03 | Neutral | Zemgus Girgensons |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 12:48 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 06:52 | Neutral | Zemgus Girgensons |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 04:08 | Neutral | Zemgus Girgensons |
| Mar 9, 2019 | 3 | 09:26 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 11, 2018 | 1 | 11:24 | Defensive | Zemgus Girgensons |
| Feb 14, 2016 | 3 | 09:59 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 14, 2016 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 14, 2016 | 2 | 18:04 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 14, 2016 | 1 | 00:23 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 14, 2016 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Zemgus Girgensons |
| Dec 20, 2014 | 2 | 04:55 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |