Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +10.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Dowd wins 53.5% vs right-shot opponents — Schmaltz shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 50.8% vs Schmaltz 41.2% (+10.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 57.4%
Defensive zone
Dowd 94.9%
Neutral zone
Dowd 75.2%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 83.1%
83.1%
16.9%
Dowd
Schmaltz
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Dowd
Schmaltz
Last 5: Dowd 4-1 Schmaltz
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
2
0
Dowd
Schmaltz
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
2
1
Dowd
Schmaltz
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Schmaltz
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (343)
39.5% (658)
+12.1%
Power Play
50.0% (2)
41.3% (92)
+8.7%
Penalty Kill
47.1% (51)
45.1% (51)
+2.0%
On even strength, Dowd has a +12.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schmaltz shoots right. Dowd is 53.5% vs right-shot opponents (129).
Dowd shoots right. Schmaltz is 44.3% vs right-shot opponents (273).
Home / Away
Dowd
Schmaltz
Home
43.0% (172)
40.8% (424)
Away
57.1% (224)
39.3% (377)
By Period
Dowd
Schmaltz
P1
47.4%
38.4%
P2
60.6%
40.7%
P3
44.7%
41.0%
OT
33.3%
40.0%
Final 5 min
50.0%
42.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
51.0%
Schmaltz
46.0%▬
45.0%
40.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2018 | 1 | 02:58 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 28, 2017 | 3 | 16:49 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 28, 2017 | 3 | 16:29 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Dec 28, 2017 | 2 | 05:03 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 28, 2017 | 1 | 18:19 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |