Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +8.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (89% H2H, 9 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 50.7% vs Schmaltz 42.5% (+8.4%)
H2H factor
Dowd leads 14-8 in 22 meetings
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 86.8%
Defensive zone
Dowd 93.9%
Neutral zone
Dowd 88.3%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 73.5%
73.5%
26.5%
Dowd
Schmaltz
Head-to-Head Record
14
-
8
(22 meetings)
14
8
Dowd
Schmaltz
Last 10: Dowd 7-3 Schmaltz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
0
5
Dowd
Schmaltz
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
8
1
Dowd
Schmaltz
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
6
2
Dowd
Schmaltz
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Schmaltz
Edge
Even Strength
52.4% (6,009)
41.2% (3,399)
+11.2%
Power Play
56.1% (164)
47.1% (649)
+9.0%
Penalty Kill
44.1% (1,635)
47.8% (134)
-3.7%
On even strength, Dowd has a +11.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schmaltz shoots right. Dowd is 51.2% vs right-shot opponents (2,675).
Dowd shoots right. Schmaltz is 45.3% vs right-shot opponents (1,167).
Home / Away
Dowd
Schmaltz
Home
51.9% (3,897)
42.7% (2,089)
Away
49.5% (3,912)
41.9% (2,093)
By Period
Dowd
Schmaltz
P1
51.7%
41.1%
P2
50.4%
42.9%
P3
50.3%
43.0%
OT
45.9%
42.4%
Final 5 min
50.5%
42.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.7%
Schmaltz
46.0%▬
45.0%
42.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2026 | 2 | 19:38 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 2 | 05:11 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 1 | 03:11 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 15:59 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 9, 2025 | 3 | 19:46 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 18, 2024 | 3 | 01:08 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 18, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 18, 2024 | 1 | 14:46 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 4, 2023 | 3 | 08:52 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 15, 2020 | 3 | 02:41 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Feb 15, 2020 | 2 | 16:01 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Feb 15, 2020 | 2 | 07:06 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Feb 15, 2020 | 1 | 18:32 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 15, 2020 | 1 | 09:39 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 15, 2020 | 1 | 06:11 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 22, 2018 | 1 | 02:58 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 28, 2017 | 3 | 16:49 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 28, 2017 | 3 | 16:29 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Dec 28, 2017 | 2 | 05:03 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 28, 2017 | 1 | 18:19 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |