Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 49.1% vs Schmaltz 46.6% (+2.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 86.3%
Defensive zone
Dowd 85.2%
Neutral zone
Schmaltz 51.0%
Result
Nick Schmaltz favored at 50.6%
49.4%
50.6%
Dowd
Schmaltz
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Dowd
Schmaltz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
0
2
Dowd
Schmaltz
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
2
0
Dowd
Schmaltz
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Schmaltz
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (644)
45.9% (665)
+5.8%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
46.8% (111)
-46.8%
Penalty Kill
41.6% (221)
50.0% (24)
-8.4%
On power play, Schmaltz has a +46.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schmaltz shoots right. Dowd is 51.3% vs right-shot opponents (320).
Dowd shoots right. Schmaltz is 56.4% vs right-shot opponents (241).
Home / Away
Dowd
Schmaltz
Home
48.6% (451)
44.7% (409)
Away
49.5% (416)
47.6% (391)
By Period
Dowd
Schmaltz
P1
49.1%
40.3%
P2
47.3%
47.6%
P3
51.4%
51.0%
OT
30.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
52.1%
40.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.0%
Schmaltz
46.0%▬
45.0%
46.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2026 | 2 | 19:38 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 2 | 05:11 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 1 | 03:11 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 15:59 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |