Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (49.9% vs 49.2%). Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 49.9% vs Schmaltz 49.4% (+0.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 90.6%
Defensive zone
Dowd 80.1%
Neutral zone
Dowd 61.3%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 75.4%
75.4%
24.6%
Dowd
Schmaltz
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
0
(4 meetings)
4
0
Dowd
Schmaltz
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
3
0
Dowd
Schmaltz
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
0
Dowd
Schmaltz
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Schmaltz
Edge
Even Strength
52.2% (835)
48.1% (268)
+4.1%
Power Play
60.0% (10)
50.5% (91)
+9.5%
Penalty Kill
44.0% (350)
58.8% (17)
-14.8%
On penalty kill, Schmaltz has a +14.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schmaltz shoots right. Dowd is 48.1% vs right-shot opponents (362).
Dowd shoots right. Schmaltz is 52.9% vs right-shot opponents (85).
Home / Away
Dowd
Schmaltz
Home
51.5% (619)
49.0% (206)
Away
48.1% (576)
49.4% (170)
By Period
Dowd
Schmaltz
P1
51.7%
53.6%
P2
51.6%
46.2%
P3
47.0%
50.4%
OT
22.2%
16.7%
Final 5 min
48.1%
39.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.9%
Schmaltz
46.0%▬
45.0%
49.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 9, 2025 | 3 | 19:46 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 18, 2024 | 3 | 01:08 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 18, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 18, 2024 | 1 | 14:46 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |