Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +9.4% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 49.1% vs Jost 45.0% (+9.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Jost 85.2%
Defensive zone
Dowd 62.4%
Neutral zone
Jost 61.9%
Result
Tyson Jost favored at 61.4%
38.6%
61.4%
Dowd
Jost
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Dowd
Jost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Jost
0
1
Dowd
Jost
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Jost
0
1
Dowd
Jost
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Jost
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (644)
39.3% (84)
+12.4%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
0.0% (1)
+0.0%
Penalty Kill
41.6% (221)
50.0% (6)
-8.4%
On even strength, Dowd has a +12.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jost shoots left. Dowd is 47.7% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Dowd shoots right. Jost is 48.5% vs right-shot opponents (33).
Home / Away
Dowd
Jost
Home
48.6% (451)
38.5% (52)
Away
49.5% (416)
41.0% (39)
By Period
Dowd
Jost
P1
49.1%
40.6%
P2
47.3%
38.9%
P3
51.4%
39.1%
Final 5 min
52.1%
37.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.0%
Jost
38.0%▼
41.5%
39.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 5, 2026 | 3 | 19:38 | Defensive | Tyson Jost |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 1 | 09:42 | Offensive | Tyson Jost |