Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +10.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 50.7% vs Jost 40.5% (+10.6%)
H2H factor
Dowd leads 13-7 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
Jost 57.1%
Defensive zone
Dowd 94.7%
Neutral zone
Dowd 90.0%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 84.6%
84.6%
15.4%
Dowd
Jost
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
7
(20 meetings)
13
7
Dowd
Jost
Last 10: Dowd 5-5 Jost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Jost
0
3
Dowd
Jost
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
6
1
Dowd
Jost
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
7
3
Dowd
Jost
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Jost
Edge
Even Strength
52.4% (6,009)
41.0% (2,014)
+11.4%
Power Play
56.1% (164)
34.2% (73)
+21.9%
Penalty Kill
44.1% (1,635)
35.3% (255)
+8.8%
On power play, Dowd has a +21.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jost shoots left. Dowd is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (5,134).
Dowd shoots right. Jost is 39.4% vs right-shot opponents (876).
Home / Away
Dowd
Jost
Home
51.9% (3,897)
41.9% (1,238)
Away
49.5% (3,912)
38.1% (1,104)
By Period
Dowd
Jost
P1
51.7%
38.5%
P2
50.4%
41.2%
P3
50.3%
40.9%
OT
45.9%
40.0%
Final 5 min
50.5%
38.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.7%
Jost
38.0%▼
41.5%
40.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 5, 2026 | 3 | 19:38 | Defensive | Tyson Jost |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 1 | 09:42 | Offensive | Tyson Jost |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 2 | 18:04 | Offensive | Tyson Jost |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 1 | 19:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 3 | 06:16 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 1 | 16:22 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 1 | 16:11 | Neutral | Tyson Jost |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 1 | 16:04 | Neutral | Tyson Jost |
| Feb 26, 2023 | 1 | 14:45 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 3 | 04:07 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 3 | 00:55 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 2 | 11:17 | Neutral | Tyson Jost |
| Apr 3, 2022 | 3 | 06:08 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 19, 2021 | 3 | 19:00 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 19, 2021 | 2 | 19:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 13, 2020 | 1 | 07:50 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 26, 2018 | 1 | 13:31 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 20, 2018 | 3 | 10:55 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 20, 2018 | 2 | 13:52 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 20, 2018 | 2 | 07:17 | Offensive | Tyson Jost |