Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.1% vs 47.7%). Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 48.3% vs Girgensons 48.5% (+0.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Girgensons 87.3%
Defensive zone
Dowd 67.2%
Neutral zone
Dowd 54.6%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 63.0%
63.0%
37.0%
Dowd
Girgensons
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Dowd
Girgensons
Last 6: Dowd 3-3 Girgensons
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
3
1
Dowd
Girgensons
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Girgensons
0
2
Dowd
Girgensons
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Girgensons
Edge
Even Strength
49.2% (778)
46.3% (147)
+2.9%
Power Play
58.3% (12)
66.7% (3)
-8.4%
Penalty Kill
44.0% (234)
51.1% (47)
-7.1%
On power play, Girgensons has a +8.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Girgensons shoots left. Dowd is 48.0% vs left-shot opponents (698).
Dowd shoots right. Girgensons is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (83).
Home / Away
Dowd
Girgensons
Home
46.3% (492)
34.2% (79)
Away
49.8% (532)
56.8% (118)
By Period
Dowd
Girgensons
P1
49.1%
56.5%
P2
48.2%
38.1%
P3
46.9%
47.7%
Final 5 min
45.7%
45.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
48.1%
Girgensons
58.0%▲
44.0%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2024 | 3 | 12:17 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 2, 2024 | 1 | 19:35 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 2, 2024 | 1 | 15:42 | Neutral | Zemgus Girgensons |
| Apr 2, 2024 | 1 | 01:22 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 1 | 10:09 | Neutral | Zemgus Girgensons |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 1 | 05:47 | Defensive | Zemgus Girgensons |