Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 50.8% vs Girgensons 45.1% (+5.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Girgensons 90.2%
Defensive zone
Dowd 73.3%
Neutral zone
Girgensons 59.1%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 51.8%
51.8%
48.2%
Dowd
Girgensons
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Dowd
Girgensons
Last 9: Dowd 4-5 Girgensons
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Girgensons
0
1
Dowd
Girgensons
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
3
1
Dowd
Girgensons
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Girgensons
1
3
Dowd
Girgensons
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Girgensons
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (5,850)
45.2% (2,648)
+7.4%
Power Play
56.1% (164)
48.9% (174)
+7.2%
Penalty Kill
43.9% (1,600)
42.0% (469)
+1.9%
On even strength, Dowd has a +7.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Girgensons shoots left. Dowd is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (5,015).
Dowd shoots right. Girgensons is 44.2% vs right-shot opponents (1,279).
Home / Away
Dowd
Girgensons
Home
52.1% (3,753)
45.3% (1,651)
Away
49.6% (3,862)
44.6% (1,640)
By Period
Dowd
Girgensons
P1
51.9%
45.7%
P2
50.7%
43.7%
P3
50.1%
45.2%
OT
45.9%
52.5%
Final 5 min
50.5%
43.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
48.0%▼
54.0%
50.8%
Girgensons
30.0%▼
43.5%
45.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 03:39 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 2, 2024 | 3 | 12:17 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 2, 2024 | 1 | 19:35 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 2, 2024 | 1 | 15:42 | Neutral | Zemgus Girgensons |
| Apr 2, 2024 | 1 | 01:22 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 1 | 10:09 | Neutral | Zemgus Girgensons |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 1 | 05:47 | Defensive | Zemgus Girgensons |
| Mar 16, 2017 | 3 | 04:19 | Offensive | Zemgus Girgensons |
| Mar 16, 2017 | 1 | 09:09 | Neutral | Zemgus Girgensons |