Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +5.5% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 49.1% vs Girgensons 45.8% (+5.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Girgensons 53.5%
Defensive zone
Dowd 72.2%
Neutral zone
Dowd 55.0%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 55.0%
55.0%
45.0%
Dowd
Girgensons
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Dowd
Girgensons
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
0
Dowd
Girgensons
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Girgensons
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (644)
43.2% (146)
+8.5%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
50.0% (2)
-50.0%
Penalty Kill
41.6% (221)
44.8% (29)
-3.2%
On power play, Girgensons has a +50.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Girgensons shoots left. Dowd is 47.7% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Dowd shoots right. Girgensons is 41.4% vs right-shot opponents (58).
Home / Away
Dowd
Girgensons
Home
48.6% (451)
40.3% (72)
Away
49.5% (416)
45.7% (105)
By Period
Dowd
Girgensons
P1
49.1%
43.8%
P2
47.3%
44.6%
P3
51.4%
42.5%
Final 5 min
52.1%
34.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.0%
Girgensons
58.0%▲
44.0%
43.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 03:39 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |