Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bjugstad 48.0% vs Aho 51.2% (-3.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 66.0%
Defensive zone
Bjugstad 90.5%
Neutral zone
Bjugstad 70.8%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 54.7%
45.3%
54.7%
Bjugstad
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Bjugstad
Aho
Last 5: Bjugstad 1-4 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
4
Bjugstad
Aho
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
1
0
Bjugstad
Aho
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bjugstad
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (867)
48.5% (778)
+0.9%
Power Play
56.0% (25)
63.4% (191)
-7.4%
Penalty Kill
40.7% (216)
50.8% (65)
-10.1%
On penalty kill, Aho has a +10.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Bjugstad is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (796).
Bjugstad shoots right. Aho is 50.5% vs right-shot opponents (372).
Home / Away
Bjugstad
Aho
Home
46.5% (480)
51.3% (530)
Away
48.9% (628)
51.4% (504)
By Period
Bjugstad
Aho
P1
48.7%
50.0%
P2
45.6%
51.3%
P3
49.1%
52.1%
OT
50.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
45.0%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bjugstad
44.0%▼
49.0%
47.8%
Aho
54.0%▼
56.5%
51.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 23, 2022 | 2 | 11:25 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 1 | 10:34 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 1 | 06:30 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 1 | 01:18 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 1 | 00:32 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |