Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bjugstad 49.1% vs Aho 50.0% (-1.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 75.7%
Defensive zone
Bjugstad 72.0%
Neutral zone
Bjugstad 51.8%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 51.9%
48.1%
51.9%
Bjugstad
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Bjugstad
Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
1
Bjugstad
Aho
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
1
0
Bjugstad
Aho
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bjugstad
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
48.9% (280)
49.9% (851)
-1.0%
Power Play
50.0% (6)
53.5% (144)
-3.5%
Penalty Kill
47.2% (36)
43.3% (60)
+3.9%
On penalty kill, Bjugstad has a +3.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Bjugstad is 48.4% vs left-shot opponents (254).
Bjugstad shoots right. Aho is 55.5% vs right-shot opponents (364).
Home / Away
Bjugstad
Aho
Home
48.4% (190)
53.2% (554)
Away
49.2% (132)
46.5% (501)
By Period
Bjugstad
Aho
P1
41.7%
49.1%
P2
56.6%
50.8%
P3
48.7%
49.7%
OT
33.3%
58.8%
Final 5 min
51.2%
49.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
48.8%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 11:57 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 1 | 15:37 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |