Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (49.8% vs 50.5%).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bjugstad 49.9% vs Aho 50.4% (-0.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 74.9%
Defensive zone
Bjugstad 76.6%
Neutral zone
Aho 51.0%
Result
Nick Bjugstad favored at 50.9%
50.9%
49.1%
Bjugstad
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Bjugstad
Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
1
Bjugstad
Aho
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
1
0
Bjugstad
Aho
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bjugstad
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (212)
50.5% (647)
+0.4%
Power Play
40.0% (5)
54.2% (131)
-14.2%
Penalty Kill
44.1% (34)
38.1% (42)
+6.0%
On power play, Aho has a +14.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Bjugstad is 49.0% vs left-shot opponents (202).
Bjugstad shoots right. Aho is 56.1% vs right-shot opponents (289).
Home / Away
Bjugstad
Aho
Home
52.3% (151)
53.9% (445)
Away
46.0% (100)
46.4% (375)
By Period
Bjugstad
Aho
P1
44.9%
48.7%
P2
56.8%
51.4%
P3
48.3%
50.8%
OT
33.3%
58.8%
Final 5 min
48.4%
49.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bjugstad
44.0%▼
49.0%
49.8%
Aho
54.0%▼
56.5%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 11:57 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 1 | 15:37 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |