Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bjugstad 49.3% vs Aho 53.8% (-4.9%)
H2H factor
Aho leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Aho 78.2%
Defensive zone
Bjugstad 79.3%
Neutral zone
Bjugstad 56.8%
Result
Nick Bjugstad favored at 54.3%
54.3%
45.7%
Bjugstad
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
6
(11 meetings)
5
6
Bjugstad
Aho
Last 10: Bjugstad 5-5 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
4
Bjugstad
Aho
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
3
2
Bjugstad
Aho
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
2
0
Bjugstad
Aho
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bjugstad
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (906)
51.2% (785)
-0.5%
Power Play
48.1% (108)
63.8% (213)
-15.7%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (239)
57.9% (57)
-13.5%
On power play, Aho has a +15.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Bjugstad is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (906).
Bjugstad shoots right. Aho is 54.4% vs right-shot opponents (406).
Home / Away
Bjugstad
Aho
Home
49.8% (643)
54.9% (548)
Away
48.7% (610)
53.3% (507)
By Period
Bjugstad
Aho
P1
49.4%
52.8%
P2
50.5%
58.9%
P3
47.9%
50.6%
OT
50.0%
60.0%
Final 5 min
48.2%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bjugstad
44.0%▼
49.0%
49.2%
Aho
54.0%▼
56.5%
54.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 16, 2024 | 3 | 12:02 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 16, 2024 | 3 | 00:38 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 3 | 15:40 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 3 | 15:02 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 3 | 04:42 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 3 | 03:16 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 2 | 16:53 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 2 | 16:28 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 2 | 14:12 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 1 | 11:01 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |