Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (82% H2H, 17 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bjugstad 48.9% vs Aho 51.2% (-2.4%)
H2H factor
Aho leads 21-14 in 35 meetings
Offensive zone
Bjugstad 52.1%
Defensive zone
Bjugstad 80.3%
Neutral zone
Bjugstad 63.0%
Result
Nick Bjugstad favored at 63.6%
63.6%
36.4%
Bjugstad
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
14
-
21
(35 meetings)
14
21
Bjugstad
Aho
Last 10: Bjugstad 4-6 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
3
14
Bjugstad
Aho
17 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
8
4
Bjugstad
Aho
12 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Bjugstad
Aho
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bjugstad
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
48.6% (6,634)
50.1% (6,619)
-1.5%
Power Play
55.2% (829)
58.9% (1,310)
-3.7%
Penalty Kill
44.3% (614)
46.3% (464)
-2.0%
On power play, Aho has a +3.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Bjugstad is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (5,747).
Bjugstad shoots right. Aho is 51.7% vs right-shot opponents (3,088).
Home / Away
Bjugstad
Aho
Home
49.8% (4,020)
52.4% (4,308)
Away
48.1% (4,057)
50.1% (4,085)
By Period
Bjugstad
Aho
P1
49.0%
51.1%
P2
49.1%
52.0%
P3
48.4%
50.7%
OT
61.3%
48.9%
Final 5 min
47.3%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
48.9%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 11:57 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 1 | 15:37 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 13, 2024 | 3 | 03:06 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 13, 2024 | 3 | 01:10 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 13, 2024 | 2 | 05:11 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 13, 2024 | 2 | 01:23 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 16, 2024 | 3 | 12:02 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 16, 2024 | 3 | 00:38 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 3 | 15:40 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 3 | 15:02 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 3 | 04:42 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 3 | 03:16 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 2 | 16:53 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 2 | 16:28 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 2 | 14:12 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 1 | 11:01 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 2 | 11:25 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 1 | 10:34 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 1 | 06:30 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |