Scouting Report
Nick Bjugstad holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Bjugstad wins 54.5% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bjugstad 53.8% vs Hertl 52.3% (+2.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 57.2%
Defensive zone
Bjugstad 57.3%
Neutral zone
Bjugstad 51.3%
Result
Nick Bjugstad favored at 50.3%
50.3%
49.7%
Bjugstad
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Bjugstad
Hertl
Last 5: Bjugstad 3-2 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Bjugstad
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Bjugstad
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
1
0
Bjugstad
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bjugstad
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (245)
51.6% (1,084)
+4.3%
Power Play
0.0% (3)
61.0% (246)
-61.0%
Penalty Kill
57.1% (7)
44.1% (136)
+13.0%
On power play, Hertl has a +61.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Bjugstad is 54.5% vs left-shot opponents (198).
Bjugstad shoots right. Hertl is 57.2% vs right-shot opponents (526).
Home / Away
Bjugstad
Hertl
Home
53.2% (111)
55.2% (696)
Away
56.9% (144)
50.0% (770)
By Period
Bjugstad
Hertl
P1
44.6%
55.4%
P2
61.4%
54.8%
P3
61.3%
48.9%
Final 5 min
50.8%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
55.3%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 17, 2022 | 1 | 18:33 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 17, 2022 | 1 | 18:29 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Apr 17, 2022 | 1 | 14:39 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 9, 2021 | 3 | 03:29 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 16, 2021 | 2 | 14:36 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |