Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +9.0% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bjugstad 49.1% vs Hertl 57.2% (-9.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 82.1%
Defensive zone
Bjugstad 74.2%
Neutral zone
Bjugstad 56.9%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 82.1%
17.9%
82.1%
Bjugstad
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Bjugstad
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Bjugstad
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bjugstad
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
48.9% (280)
58.1% (823)
-9.2%
Power Play
50.0% (6)
56.2% (265)
-6.2%
Penalty Kill
47.2% (36)
62.9% (35)
-15.7%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +15.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Bjugstad is 48.4% vs left-shot opponents (254).
Bjugstad shoots right. Hertl is 59.6% vs right-shot opponents (433).
Home / Away
Bjugstad
Hertl
Home
48.4% (190)
59.7% (561)
Away
49.2% (132)
55.9% (562)
By Period
Bjugstad
Hertl
P1
41.7%
51.6%
P2
56.6%
63.8%
P3
48.7%
58.6%
OT
33.3%
28.6%
Final 5 min
51.2%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
48.8%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 15, 2025 | 1 | 11:41 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |