Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +8.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bjugstad 47.9% vs Hertl 55.4% (-8.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bjugstad 76.7%
Defensive zone
Bjugstad 87.7%
Neutral zone
Bjugstad 77.0%
Result
Nick Bjugstad favored at 85.0%
85.0%
15.0%
Bjugstad
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
4
(4 meetings)
0
4
Bjugstad
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
3
Bjugstad
Hertl
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Bjugstad
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bjugstad
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
46.7% (398)
54.1% (717)
-7.4%
Power Play
51.6% (31)
61.9% (210)
-10.3%
Penalty Kill
62.5% (8)
58.1% (31)
+4.4%
On power play, Hertl has a +10.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Bjugstad is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (323).
Bjugstad shoots right. Hertl is 56.6% vs right-shot opponents (362).
Home / Away
Bjugstad
Hertl
Home
47.3% (220)
58.1% (492)
Away
47.5% (217)
53.6% (466)
By Period
Bjugstad
Hertl
P1
46.1%
57.1%
P2
46.3%
54.0%
P3
50.4%
56.6%
Final 5 min
46.7%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
47.4%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 15, 2024 | 3 | 04:05 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 15, 2024 | 1 | 18:35 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 3 | 14:51 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |