Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +8.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Bjugstad on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bjugstad 49.3% vs Hertl 56.8% (-8.3%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 6-6 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 73.6%
Defensive zone
Bjugstad 62.9%
Neutral zone
Hertl 58.4%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 61.2%
38.8%
61.2%
Bjugstad
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
6
(12 meetings)
6
6
Bjugstad
Hertl
Last 10: Bjugstad 5-5 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
3
2
Bjugstad
Hertl
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Bjugstad
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
3
2
Bjugstad
Hertl
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bjugstad
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (906)
57.0% (718)
-6.3%
Power Play
48.1% (108)
64.9% (188)
-16.8%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (239)
44.2% (77)
+0.2%
On power play, Hertl has a +16.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Bjugstad is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (906).
Bjugstad shoots right. Hertl is 62.5% vs right-shot opponents (352).
Home / Away
Bjugstad
Hertl
Home
49.8% (643)
59.2% (463)
Away
48.7% (610)
56.0% (520)
By Period
Bjugstad
Hertl
P1
49.4%
56.3%
P2
50.5%
55.4%
P3
47.9%
60.5%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
48.2%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
49.2%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 21, 2023 | 3 | 14:20 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 2 | 16:53 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 2 | 10:13 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 1 | 15:20 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 1 | 15:07 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 1 | 07:31 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 15, 2023 | 3 | 16:36 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 15, 2023 | 3 | 13:12 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 15, 2023 | 1 | 19:43 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |