Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +7.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 18 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bjugstad 48.0% vs Hertl 54.5% (-7.0%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 23-8 in 31 meetings
Offensive zone
Bjugstad 74.8%
Defensive zone
Bjugstad 96.5%
Neutral zone
Bjugstad 83.6%
Result
Nick Bjugstad favored at 81.4%
81.4%
18.6%
Bjugstad
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
23
(31 meetings)
8
23
Bjugstad
Hertl
Last 10: Bjugstad 4-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
3
15
Bjugstad
Hertl
18 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
4
3
Bjugstad
Hertl
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
5
Bjugstad
Hertl
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bjugstad
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (867)
54.1% (1,117)
-4.7%
Power Play
56.0% (25)
59.8% (296)
-3.8%
Penalty Kill
40.7% (216)
34.4% (32)
+6.3%
On penalty kill, Bjugstad has a +6.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Bjugstad is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (796).
Bjugstad shoots right. Hertl is 61.2% vs right-shot opponents (562).
Home / Away
Bjugstad
Hertl
Home
46.5% (480)
54.3% (709)
Away
48.9% (628)
55.3% (736)
By Period
Bjugstad
Hertl
P1
48.7%
51.6%
P2
45.6%
53.6%
P3
49.1%
58.6%
OT
50.0%
45.5%
Final 5 min
45.0%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
47.8%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13, 2023 | 3 | 00:18 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 13, 2023 | 2 | 15:55 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 13, 2023 | 2 | 12:45 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Apr 13, 2023 | 1 | 15:01 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 3 | 18:53 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 3 | 18:38 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 2 | 19:13 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 1 | 18:20 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 1 | 18:16 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 20, 2023 | 2 | 09:20 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Mar 20, 2023 | 1 | 16:09 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 20, 2023 | 1 | 10:48 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 20, 2023 | 1 | 02:24 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 10, 2023 | 3 | 14:05 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 10, 2023 | 3 | 13:51 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 10, 2023 | 3 | 09:18 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 10, 2023 | 3 | 02:21 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 10, 2023 | 2 | 16:12 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 10, 2023 | 2 | 11:25 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 10, 2023 | 2 | 05:02 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |