Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 30 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bjugstad 48.9% vs Hertl 54.2% (-5.3%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 39-26 in 65 meetings
Offensive zone
Bjugstad 83.7%
Defensive zone
Bjugstad 76.2%
Neutral zone
Bjugstad 77.2%
Result
Nick Bjugstad favored at 80.0%
80.0%
20.0%
Bjugstad
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
26
-
39
(65 meetings)
26
39
Bjugstad
Hertl
Last 10: Bjugstad 3-7 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
10
20
Bjugstad
Hertl
30 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
7
9
Bjugstad
Hertl
16 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
9
10
Bjugstad
Hertl
19 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bjugstad
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
48.6% (6,634)
53.8% (8,268)
-5.2%
Power Play
55.2% (829)
59.3% (1,975)
-4.1%
Penalty Kill
44.3% (614)
46.3% (806)
-2.0%
On even strength, Hertl has a +5.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Bjugstad is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (5,747).
Bjugstad shoots right. Hertl is 56.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,133).
Home / Away
Bjugstad
Hertl
Home
49.8% (4,020)
55.7% (5,344)
Away
48.1% (4,057)
52.8% (5,705)
By Period
Bjugstad
Hertl
P1
49.0%
53.6%
P2
49.1%
54.1%
P3
48.4%
55.3%
OT
61.3%
46.5%
Final 5 min
47.3%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
48.9%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 15, 2025 | 1 | 11:41 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 30, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 15, 2024 | 3 | 04:05 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 15, 2024 | 1 | 18:35 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 3 | 14:51 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 3 | 14:20 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 2 | 16:53 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 2 | 10:13 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 1 | 15:20 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 1 | 15:07 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 1 | 07:31 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 15, 2023 | 3 | 16:36 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 15, 2023 | 3 | 13:12 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 15, 2023 | 1 | 19:43 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Apr 13, 2023 | 3 | 00:18 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 13, 2023 | 2 | 15:55 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 13, 2023 | 2 | 12:45 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |