Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Foligno on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.5% vs Foligno 46.4% (+2.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Foligno 66.4%
Defensive zone
Foligno 54.6%
Neutral zone
Foligno 61.6%
Result
Nick Foligno favored at 65.7%
34.3%
65.7%
Nelson
Foligno
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Nelson
Foligno
Last 7: Nelson 2-5 Foligno
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Foligno
2
4
Nelson
Foligno
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Foligno
0
1
Nelson
Foligno
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Foligno
Edge
Even Strength
48.0% (681)
46.3% (566)
+1.7%
Power Play
54.0% (87)
43.4% (106)
+10.6%
Penalty Kill
40.5% (37)
46.4% (69)
-5.9%
On power play, Nelson has a +10.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Foligno shoots left. Nelson is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (555).
Nelson shoots left. Foligno is 47.4% vs left-shot opponents (447).
Home / Away
Nelson
Foligno
Home
51.1% (399)
48.9% (364)
Away
45.6% (406)
43.0% (377)
By Period
Nelson
Foligno
P1
51.8%
48.7%
P2
47.5%
46.9%
P3
46.5%
44.0%
OT
20.0%
20.0%
Final 5 min
51.1%
50.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Foligno
54.0%▲
48.0%
45.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 13, 2018 | 3 | 12:08 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 13, 2018 | 2 | 03:01 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Feb 13, 2018 | 2 | 02:50 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Feb 3, 2018 | 2 | 02:10 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Dec 14, 2017 | 1 | 11:04 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 6, 2017 | 2 | 04:01 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Oct 6, 2017 | 1 | 15:57 | Neutral | Nick Foligno |