Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Schmaltz on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Paul 50.4% vs Schmaltz 48.4% (+2.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 76.9%
Defensive zone
Paul 79.7%
Neutral zone
Paul 68.6%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 53.3%
53.3%
46.7%
Paul
Schmaltz
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Paul
Schmaltz
Last 9: Paul 5-4 Schmaltz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
0
4
Paul
Schmaltz
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
4
0
Paul
Schmaltz
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
1
0
Paul
Schmaltz
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Paul
Schmaltz
Edge
Even Strength
53.0% (644)
42.9% (133)
+10.1%
Power Play
37.5% (24)
55.1% (89)
-17.6%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (177)
47.1% (17)
-4.2%
On power play, Schmaltz has a +17.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schmaltz shoots right. Paul is 47.2% vs right-shot opponents (386).
Paul shoots left. Schmaltz is 47.8% vs left-shot opponents (178).
Home / Away
Paul
Schmaltz
Home
52.5% (516)
41.6% (125)
Away
47.1% (329)
54.4% (114)
By Period
Paul
Schmaltz
P1
47.6%
40.0%
P2
48.4%
59.5%
P3
54.5%
45.0%
OT
100.0%
40.0%
Final 5 min
49.0%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
50.4%
Schmaltz
46.0%▬
45.0%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2022 | 1 | 18:39 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Mar 14, 2022 | 1 | 11:29 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Mar 14, 2022 | 1 | 08:45 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 5, 2022 | 3 | 11:11 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 5, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Mar 5, 2022 | 1 | 19:25 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 5, 2022 | 1 | 19:18 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Mar 5, 2022 | 1 | 09:10 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 5, 2022 | 1 | 04:03 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |