Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.0% vs 49.2%). Paul wins 45.7% vs right-shot opponents — Schmaltz shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Paul 50.0% vs Schmaltz 49.4% (+0.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 61.7%
Defensive zone
Paul 80.8%
Neutral zone
Paul 60.8%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 59.6%
59.6%
40.4%
Paul
Schmaltz
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Paul
Schmaltz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
1
0
Paul
Schmaltz
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
1
0
Paul
Schmaltz
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Paul
Schmaltz
Edge
Even Strength
48.8% (666)
48.1% (268)
+0.7%
Power Play
53.8% (65)
50.5% (91)
+3.3%
Penalty Kill
60.0% (55)
58.8% (17)
+1.2%
On power play, Paul has a +3.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schmaltz shoots right. Paul is 45.7% vs right-shot opponents (243).
Paul shoots left. Schmaltz is 48.1% vs left-shot opponents (291).
Home / Away
Paul
Schmaltz
Home
49.7% (348)
49.0% (206)
Away
50.2% (438)
49.4% (170)
By Period
Paul
Schmaltz
P1
51.0%
53.6%
P2
47.4%
46.2%
P3
51.5%
50.4%
OT
0.0%
16.7%
Final 5 min
53.2%
39.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
50.0%
Schmaltz
46.0%▬
45.0%
49.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2025 | 3 | 11:14 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 1 | 17:18 | Defensive | Nick Paul |