Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Paul wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Paul 50.4% vs Monahan 52.8% (-2.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Monahan 82.0%
Defensive zone
Paul 70.8%
Neutral zone
Paul 51.7%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 64.5%
64.5%
35.5%
Paul
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Paul
Monahan
Last 9: Paul 5-4 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
4
2
Paul
Monahan
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
1
2
Paul
Monahan
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Paul
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
53.0% (644)
51.5% (641)
+1.5%
Power Play
37.5% (24)
62.8% (129)
-25.3%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (177)
33.3% (9)
+9.6%
On power play, Monahan has a +25.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Paul is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (459).
Paul shoots left. Monahan is 53.4% vs left-shot opponents (491).
Home / Away
Paul
Monahan
Home
52.5% (516)
53.9% (362)
Away
47.1% (329)
52.5% (417)
By Period
Paul
Monahan
P1
47.6%
48.0%
P2
48.4%
57.0%
P3
54.5%
54.1%
OT
100.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
49.0%
51.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
50.4%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
53.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2022 | 2 | 17:07 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Jan 13, 2022 | 2 | 17:01 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 13, 2022 | 2 | 07:46 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 13, 2022 | 2 | 01:47 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 13, 2022 | 1 | 13:28 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 13, 2022 | 1 | 01:43 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 14, 2021 | 3 | 02:33 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 14, 2021 | 2 | 07:40 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 14, 2021 | 2 | 04:44 | Defensive | Nick Paul |