Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +1.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Paul wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Paul 53.3% vs Monahan 52.8% (+1.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Paul 52.8%
Defensive zone
Paul 52.7%
Neutral zone
Monahan 56.8%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 54.4%
45.6%
54.4%
Paul
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Paul
Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
1
Paul
Monahan
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
2
1
Paul
Monahan
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Paul
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
53.2% (327)
53.2% (823)
+0.0%
Power Play
61.4% (57)
55.3% (159)
+6.1%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (32)
48.4% (95)
+1.6%
On power play, Paul has a +6.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Paul is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (299).
Paul shoots left. Monahan is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (676).
Home / Away
Paul
Monahan
Home
54.6% (183)
54.6% (529)
Away
53.6% (233)
51.6% (548)
By Period
Paul
Monahan
P1
56.3%
49.0%
P2
54.8%
55.4%
P3
52.4%
53.6%
OT
44.4%
61.9%
Final 5 min
59.0%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
54.1%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
53.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 14:31 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 14:21 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 04:58 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 18:33 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |