Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.3% vs 54.9%). Paul wins 58.1% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Paul 53.9% vs Monahan 54.5% (-0.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Paul 52.6%
Defensive zone
Paul 50.1%
Neutral zone
Monahan 51.1%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 50.2%
50.2%
49.8%
Paul
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Paul
Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
1
0
Paul
Monahan
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
2
Paul
Monahan
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Paul
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
53.1% (710)
57.1% (871)
-4.0%
Power Play
57.3% (199)
53.1% (262)
+4.2%
Penalty Kill
58.0% (69)
44.6% (139)
+13.4%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +13.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Paul is 58.1% vs left-shot opponents (623).
Paul shoots left. Monahan is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (753).
Home / Away
Paul
Monahan
Home
56.0% (466)
55.3% (644)
Away
52.7% (512)
54.5% (628)
By Period
Paul
Monahan
P1
57.2%
53.9%
P2
54.9%
55.3%
P3
51.5%
54.4%
OT
33.3%
76.5%
Final 5 min
52.3%
55.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
54.3%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
54.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2023 | 2 | 08:39 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 3 | 01:02 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |